Back in June 2023, I developed a foresight scenario exploring possible geopolitical, technological, and social trajectories leading to the year 2035.Key assumptions of the scenario included: A truly multipolar world with India emerging as the third superpower.
Creation of the South Pacific Treaty Organization (SPTO) – an Asian counterpart to NATO Gradual disintegration of Russia following an ecological disaster and weak leadership Turkey’s progressive shift away from the West toward an Asian axis Poland as the political and economic leader of a strengthened Three Seas Initiative (including closer cooperation with Scandinavia and Greece).
Nearly three years later, I am sharing this scenario not as a prediction, but as an example of structured foresight thinking. What remains relevant today? The rapid rise of India’s geopolitical and technological ambitions.
Turkey’s continued drift toward Asia and tensions with the EU The strategic importance of the Three Seas Initiative and Poland’s central role in Central Europe The need to build infrastructure and institutional resilience.
What turned out differently? The war in Ukraine has not been frozen, and Russia has not entered a path of disintegration.
The assumed major ecological catastrophe in Norilsk did not occur.
This is exactly what foresight is about – not hitting one “correct” future, but training strategic imagination, identifying key drivers of change, and preparing for multiple possible outcomes. This 2023 scenario demonstrates how I was already connecting ecological, technological, demographic, and geopolitical factors into a coherent narrative. Today, it serves as excellent material for self-reflection and calibration of my strategic thinking .I’d love to hear your thoughts: Which elements of the scenario do you still consider plausible?
How do you see Poland’s role in Europe in the 2030–2035 timeframe?
Introduction:
International Order: A Multipolar World. Year 2035 – USA / China / India. India joins the leading group of global powers. It effectively competes in the most advanced technologies, artificial intelligence, space, and the acquisition of rare earth elements. English is well-known and widely used in India, which – in the case of the internet – leads to rapid development, knowledge acquisition, and access to information compared to linguistically isolated China. At India’s initiative, the South Pacific Treaty Organization (SPTO) is created – a mirror organization to NATO, bringing together Asian states and countries gravitating economically toward Asia. The SPTO also includes authoritarian states among its members, informally providing a degree of control over their actions. This creates a safety valve and a framework for the coexistence of states that are more problematic for NATO.The Russian invasion of Ukraine – The turning point in the invasion of Ukraine proved to be a humanitarian disaster on the territory of the Russian Federation, in the Krasnoyarsk Krai (end of 2023). In Norilsk, located in the Siberian Federal District, at the largest production plant of the Norilsk Nickel company – a non-ferrous metal smelting unit – a failure occurred. This caused an ecological catastrophe that also became a humanitarian catastrophe, as a result of which hundreds of thousands of people were affected. The disaster was caused by severe nickel contamination of the groundwater in the northern region of the country and, among others, the Yenisei River. The event was concealed by the authorities. The first signals reached the global public opinion from injured employees of foreign companies that had their branches in the southern part of Krasnoyarsk. The scale and extent of the phenomenon were also evidenced by the contamination of Lake Baikal.The Russian authorities froze military operations as part of the “special operation” in Ukraine. Through Chinese-Turkish mediation, both sides committed to peace negotiations within ten years. The areas of Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics became neutral zones. Negotiations never took place afterwards.Alexei Navalny, released from the gulag, won the presidential elections in Russia (2024), promising the democratization of the country. Part of the Western press commented on this as an apparent change, hiding the actual continuity of power of the Putinist environment. Navalny proved to be a leader unable to maintain the unity of the country. Russia gradually disintegrates. In 2035, the name “Russia” covers only the territory west of the Urals, where a subsequent pro-democratic president is in the foreground, while in the background a turbulent process of reorganization within the structures of the Federal Security Service is taking place. In Central and Eastern Europe, the new Russia is perceived – due to its internal situation – as a “small, angry country” with unextinguished territorial ambitions. Deterioration of Turkey’s relations with the European Union / Exit from NATO
Over the following years, from 2023 to 2035, Turkey’s foreign policy evolved. Feeling empowered by its alliance with Iran (crowned by a successful nuclear program, thanks to earlier cooperation with Russia) and good economic arrangements with China, the country began to gravitate toward Asia, gaining military alliances and favorable economic exchange there. The actual civilizational boundary between Europe and Asia deepens.Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s victory in the 2023 presidential elections and his subsequent re-elections meant an escalation of aggression in foreign policy toward European Union countries, driven by a sense of strong international position. Turkey’s disastrous relations with the EU were caused by accumulating conflicts, including with the Republic of Cyprus. Previously, the European Commission’s objections were triggered by the closure of Turkish ports to ships from the Republic of Cyprus, which resulted in problems for the customs union between Turkey and the European Union (2023).An incident in Limassol during a carnival parade, in which several Turkish citizens were injured, became the pretext for starting an armed conflict. Aggression against the Republic of Cyprus resulted in the armed seizure of the southwestern part of the island (2025) and further provocations in the Aegean Sea, aimed at drawing Greece into the war. Ultimately, the conflict began a year later, also helped by Erdoğan’s decision to expel Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople from Turkey. This happened after Bartholomew led to the declaration of Patriarch Kirill as a heretic in the Orthodox world for his support of the “Russian world” ideology and the attitude of the Russian church hierarchy during the invasion of Ukraine.From the environment associated with Patriarch Bartholomew also came the creators of the Christian renewal movement, one of whose controversial postulates was the return of the Hagia Sophia temple to Christians – including the demolition of all elements of the building related to Islam. This met with outrage from Turkish public opinion, fueled by the Erdoğan administration.Turkey’s new stance results in its exclusion from the group of EU candidate countries. It is also excluded from NATO structures – which is linked to the newly emerging Indian military initiative, the SPTO (2030). In domestic policy, Erdoğan emphasizes strong social control based on artificial intelligence, introducing a social system of rewards and punishments modeled on the Chinese one. Blatant propaganda becomes the norm – promoting and consolidating a new vision of the state in social media (a “domestic” Turkish internet is created), cinema, art, literature, and through cultural events. In 2035, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, at the age of 81, withdraws into the background. Remaining a political authority, he appoints as his successor his daughter Esra Erdoğan, educated in the USA, who continues her father’s domestic and foreign policy. This personal decision is intended by senior Erdoğan to serve as a gateway for Turkey to return to trade contacts with Europe – no longer as an EU candidate, but as an equal partner in military and economic terms.SWOT Analysis for Poland:Since 2030, Poland has been the political and economic leader in an efficiently functioning Three Seas Initiative framework, establishing military and economic cooperation with Scandinavia. The initial initiative transforms into closer cooperation. Greece joins the framework. The consolidation of the Three Seas Initiative is a response to the threat from the east (Russia) and from the south (Turkey). The framework tightens political cooperation with Ukraine. The reconstruction of the Ukrainian state, which has been accepted into the European Union, continues. Through Bulgaria and Greece, Poland in the Three Seas borders Turkey.Strengths:Informal leader of the group of states united in the face of potential Russian-Turkish threat.
Agreement on cooperation between Scandinavia and the Three Seas – Poland’s political and economic dominance in the southern part of the framework/alliance.
The opened Central Communication Port promotes Poland as one of the most important communication hubs on the world map.
Active player in the global economic exchange system.
Poland – a state serving as a linchpin between Europe and Asia.
Weaknesses:Relatively rapid rise on the international stage – possible lack of state readiness to meet upcoming challenges.
Need to ensure protection for constantly expanding critical infrastructure.
Increased migration movement within the country and multidirectional influx of immigrants choosing Poland as their destination.
Need to build political and economic relations with the Scandinavian direction from scratch, which until now has been largely outside the attention of Polish authorities.
Opportunities:Strong economic and political center.
One of the major hubs in the global communication system.
Energy union with Scandinavia – ensuring a relatively stable energy situation in the country and full independence in this regard from Russia.
Threats:Massive, intensive attempts to destabilize the political and social situation in Poland by hostile external centers.
Risk of being drawn into conflict with Turkey through partnership with Greece within the Three Seas Initiative.
Agreement between Turkey and Russia (Turkey was one of the parties to the negotiations enabling the end of armed actions in Ukraine). Threat to the Three Seas from the east and south.
Strategy for Poland – actions Poland should take to strengthen itself internally in order to cope with the international situation as the leader of the Three Seas Initiative:Revive / find a new form of expression for the best traditions, reach for the sources of social and political culture.
Initiative to create a tribunal for judging Stalinist crimes together with partner foreign states from the former USSR sphere of influence (a postulate that those who today fight for human rights and equality should first start by fighting for the rights of Stalinist victims and their living descendants to compensation from Russia as the direct continuator of the USSR – putting the past in order in Europe) in line with the psychological principle: “an unaccounted past returns and often in the worst possible form”.
Press and other media: moderator of social discussions on current topics, carriers of knowledge and information.
Poland as a state with Catholic character and traditions, but with separation of Church and State. For example: Christian monastic centers as official advisory and consultative bodies in the field of religion, ethics, and law.
Judging all crimes committed by clergy under civil law – an agreement between the authorities of the Catholic Church and other religious associations in Poland with the national prosecutor’s office.
Law – the legal-administrative structure of the state: solid, the fruit of good understanding of reality, effective, operating in the background of social life, providing conditions and space for social stabilization and economic development.
Energy – coexistence and complementarity of coal-fired power plants, nuclear energy, and working out time for the rational introduction and improvement of infrastructure for obtaining energy from renewable sources (see: inter alia, at the current technological stage, the risk of disrupting air circulation by wind farms).
Healthcare – strong emphasis on prevention + access to full medical care “for everyone”.
Education – at the higher education level – paid studies (+ rich scholarship offer); strengthening the prestige of state universities, bringing universities to a world-class level.
Spatial planning – urban planning – municipal spatial economy – development of eastern Poland, operational urban planning = effective translation of coherent political decisions into the built and natural environment, strengthening social decision-making at the local level.
Natural environment – forests, rivers, national parks = national asset, “works of the art of nature” – sustainable management and protection.
Strong uniformed services – providing calm conditions and a safe space for the implementation of the above strategic points.
wiktoria dziasek 
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